The Manteca housing market is not experiencing déjà vu.
A survey of longtime real estate brokers notes that the market correction that is inevitable doesn’t have the same elements of 2008 or even 1989.
And as such there might not be a large fall off in prices that averaged 10 percent in Manteca during the 1989-1993 era or the housing collapse that slammed the country in earnest in 2008 with average home prices ultimately plunging by more than 30 percent in the Family City.
Factors that don’t exist this time around:
*Buyers of new and previously owned homes are still putting down between 20 and 30 percent while those with “less skin” in the game are still putting down 5 percent with no homes selling for zero down as in the lead up to 2008.
*Liar loans — overstated income on mortgage applications— no longer are passing the verification process.
*Previous market adjustments — including in the late 1970s — saw some families retreat to the west of the Altamont Pass to take advantage of dropping prices in the Bay Area. But given the demand in the Bay Area, the absence of home development to keep up with demand, and the significant price differential with the Northern San Joaquin Valley such a large scale retreat is not likely.
As of Monday, there were 18 homes in the City of Manteca as well as Oakwood Shores bordering Manteca on the west off of Woodward Avenue listed for $900,000 or more. That includes three that have pending offers.
A look at the list price history before an offer was accepted shows a trend — that is also reflected in the sub-$900,000 market — that price adjustments of 10 percent or less will attract solid offers.
That was not the case leading up to 1989 or 2008.
The price adjustments also show homes that weren’t shooting for the sky in terms of sales price did not need piece changes to sell.
An example is a home at 1580 Terracina Circle, Manteca’s first traditional gated community for custom built homes on large parcels off of Northgate Drive east of Airport Way.
It was listed for $949,950 on June 28 and within 28 days had a full offer accepted.
The four bedroom, three bathroom home with 2,740 square feet was sold for new in 2003 for $500,000.
It sold in February 2018 for $645,000. The pending offer is $304,950 more than what it sold for four years ago.
There are two examples of slight price adjustments that still landed $1 million plus offers.
The first is at 657 Fishback Road near Sierra High with a pending offer of $1,100,000. The four bedroom, three bathroom home with 2,434 square feet on a 2.3 acre parcel was first listed on May 24 for $1,198,000. The price was dropped to $1,175,000 on June 15 and then the $1.l million price on June 21.
While that is almost 10 percent less than what the original asking price was 62 days prior, it is still 45 percent more than the $760,000 the home sold for in July 2019.
The other is at 3821 Castellina Way in Oakwood Shores that has gone pending for $1,099,900.
The home features four bedrooms, three bathrooms with 3,824 square feet on a 7,501-square-foot lot.
It was first listed in April 2 for $1,195,000. The price was dropped 25 days later to $1,169,950.
It then was increased by $10,000 on May 12, dropped by $1,350 on June 2 and then to the $1,099,000 price on June 12 that allowed the sellers to snag a buyer.
The home has direct access to one of the man-made lakes in Oakwood Shores.
In addition to the resale market, there are three new homes builders in Manteca have listed in excess of $1 million.
Topping the list is a $1,240,880 offering in Oakwood Shores on Veranda Court with six bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms with 3,328 square feet
In Manteca proper, Richmond American has a new home with four bedrooms and four bathrooms in its new neighborhood off South McKinley Avenue and south of Woodward Avenue listed for $1,050,000.
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year rate rose to 5.54%, from 5.51% last week. One year ago, the average 30-year rate was 2.78%.
The average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, popular among those refinancing their homes, rose to 4.75%, from 4.67% last week. Last year at this time the rate was 2.12%.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email email@example.com