It’s not easy finding stocks that have doubled over a recent period in this bear market, but Mattel (MAT -0.32%), the maker of Barbie and Hot Wheels, and The St. Joe Company (JOE 1.54%), a Florida real estate developer, have achieved just that since July 2020.
The good news is these stocks still have some fuel left in the tank.
Let’s look at what’s driving strong performance with these two stocks, and what investors can expect.
Mattel underperformed the market for years before turning itself around with a new management team. Dolls are Mattel’s largest business, and a new deal with Walt Disney to make dolls based on the Disney Princess and Frozen properties in 2023 is a good reason to consider buying the stock now.
Toy sales have remained strong through the pandemic. Along with that tailwind, Mattel’s new management team was in the process of cutting costs and making improvements operationally to accelerate sales. This created a perfect storm of rising demand that is still fueling growth in 2022.
In addition to strong growth in dolls, Mattel is seeing momentum across other categories, including action figures, vehicles, and building sets, which are all expected to grow sales this year. Management is guiding for sales growth between 8% to 10% in 2022, with adjusted earnings per share exceeding $1.90 in 2023.
The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times trailing-12-month adjusted earnings, but the company’s growth could support a higher valuation. A P/E of 20 applied to the company’s earnings guidance for 2023 would put the stock price at $38, or 75% higher than its current share price.
There’s a good chance it could double within the next three years, but with Mattel investing in promising growth initiatives, such as several film adaptations and mobile games based on its toy brands, this is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term.
2. The St. Joe Company
St. Joe owns 170,000 acres of land in Northwest Florida. This area has seen a wave of people from across the country buying new homes. Several reasons can explain this, including Florida’s low taxes, warm climate, above-average job growth, and of course, the white sand beaches along the Gulf coast. As a result, real estate values have climbed over the last few years and fueled tremendous growth for St. Joe.
Approximately 90% of St. Joe’s real estate holdings are within 15 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. The company’s largest source of revenue is residential development, but it also owns an impressive portfolio of commercial properties, including the WaterColor Inn in Seaside, Florida. The company has plans to further expand into golf cart sales, self-storage, and a title and insurance agency.
With real estate demand rising, revenue has more than doubled over the last two years. Revenue increased 66% in 2021, and 2022 is off to another good start, with revenue growing 57% year over year in the first quarter. The company reported balanced growth across hospitality (hotels), real estate sales (residential development), and leasing properties (self-storage, retail, multi-family housing, etc.).
Florida has seen peaks and valleys in real estate demand before, but management believes this demand cycle could be more sustainable due to the wave of families that are relocating from other states.
Moreover, St. Joe’s revenue growth in 2021 was driven by approximately 2% of its total land holdings, which hints at a long runway of growth. The company has been sitting on this real estate for years waiting for the right opportunity to unlock value for shareholders, and now with a perfect storm coming together, management believes it can deliver long-term growth.
With a market cap of just $2.3 billion, the stock still has long-term upside, and depending on the timing of real estate development activities, the stock could double again within a few years. Adding the right small-cap stocks can boost your returns, and St. Joe could be a perfect fit for an investor who already owns plenty of growth stocks.
John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2024 $145 calls on Walt Disney and short January 2024 $155 calls on Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.